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《大行》瑞銀:友邦(01299.HK)股價若跌至69元 可能已全面反映極端惡劣場景預期
瑞銀發表研究報告,探討《國務院令第837號》出台對香港保險業及友邦(01299.HK)的影響。該行指出,由於保險產品兼具保障與儲蓄投資功能、底層保險資金實行全球多資產配置,以及分紅產品的利潤分享機制,新法規對訪港內地訪客保險業務的具體影響仍有待進一步監管明確。根據該行與法律專家的交流,監管重點預計較少針對底層資產的「穿透」,而更側重於資金來源及流向的合規性,...
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《大行》瑞銀:友邦(01299.HK)股價若跌至69元 可能已全面反映極端惡劣場景預期
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瑞銀發表研究報告,探討《國務院令第837號》出台對香港保險業及友邦(01299.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $713.46M; Ratio 12.939%   的影響。該行指出,由於保險產品兼具保障與儲蓄投資功能、底層保險資金實行全球多資產配置,以及分紅產品的利潤分享機制,新法規對訪港內地訪客保險業務的具體影響仍有待進一步監管明確。根據該行與法律專家的交流,監管重點預計較少針對底層資產的「穿透」,而更側重於資金來源及流向的合規性,未申報的跨境投資等違規活動將更易被偵測。

瑞銀表示,目前與保險中介人的討論顯示前線營運維持穩定,且近期一系列跨境新規均未明確提及保險,內地訪客保險的監管規則至今未變。為了量化下行風險,該行假設了一種極端但認為不大可能發生的下行場景:即自2026年下半年起完全暫停友邦香港的內地訪客新業務,並將2025至2030財年本地新業務價值年複合增長率由基準預測的10%下調至5%,在此極端假設下,預計將對其合理價值帶來每股12港元的折讓。若進一步計及港股大市疲弱因素,每股將再面臨1.5港元的折讓。該行補充,若友邦保險股價跌至69港元(對比5月31日的市場價82港元),將可能已全面反映上述極端惡劣場景的預期。

瑞銀對友邦的評級為「買入」,此前對該股設定的目標價為104元。(ad/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-09 16:25.)

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