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<Research>M Stanley Foresees Slight ST Downward Pressure on CHINAHONGQIAO, Remains Upbeat on Aluminum Price Outlook
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Morgan Stanley, in its report, predicted that CHINAHONGQIAO (01378.HK)'s latest share placing will lead to slight short-term downward pressure on its stock price. However, the broker remained upbeat about the aluminum price outlook due to: 1) limited supply growth - both in the domestic market (curbed by China's government capacity limits) and overseas markets (mainly constrained by power supply); 2) resilient demand - especially from the energy storage sector. The robust industry fundamentals should underpin further aluminum price increases, thereby bolstering the company's earnings in 2026.

Given the company's lower capex needs in 2026, Morgan Stanley believed part of the raised funds will be used for share buybacks in the market to enhance shareholder returns and support the stock price. Morgan Stanley maintained an Overweight rating on CHINAHONGQIAO with a target price of HKD30.6.

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