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<Research>CMBI Cuts NIO-SW's TP to HKD50; Breakeven Likely Unachievable in 4Q
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According to CMBI's research report, NIO-SW (09866.HK)'s 3Q25 revenue met the broker's forecast, while its net loss beat the broker's expectations by narrowing to RMB3.66 billion.

However, the company's 4Q25 sales guidance has been revised down from the previous 150,000 cars to 120,000-125,000 cars, falling short of market expectations.

Related NewsBOCI: NIO 4Q Delivery Guidance Misses, But Non-GAAP Breakeven Target Unchanged
While CMBI has raised its 4Q25 gross margin forecast for NIO-SW to 17.1%, it estimates that the company may still fail to achieve breakeven in 4Q25, incurring a net loss of RMB1.6 billion, as it is difficult to control SG&A expenses at the 3Q25 level.

CMBI kept a Hold rating for NIO-SW but cut its target price from HKD55 to HKD50.
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