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<Research>M Stanley Foresees Limited Help from CN Home Swap Tax Rebate; Residents Remain Pessimistic on Home Prices
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China's Ministry of Finance (MOF) announced a policy allowing individuals who purchase a new home within a year of selling their property between 2026 and 2027 to receive a refund income tax, Morgan Stanley's research report mentioned.

The broker believed this measure offers limited assistance to the property market, as national property prices have already adjusted by over 35% from their peak, leaving a notable portion of homeowners in negative equity.

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Moreover, due to residents' pessimistic outlook on property prices and low willingness to leverage in the current macro environment, the policy is expected to have limited impact on boosting incremental demand.

The key to reversing the long-term decline in the property market lies in restoring residents' confidence in income and property prices through active and substantial fiscal support measures. The broker maintained a cautious view on the physical market and continued to recommend holding quality stocks with self-help stories, including CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK), SEAZEN HOLDINGS (601155.SH), and C&D INTL GROUP (01908.HK).
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