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《大行》瑞銀料內銀股首季業績可成正面催化劑 首選工行、建行、中行及信行H股
瑞銀發表報告,內銀股於下周一(20日)開始公布今年首季業績,預期業績將成為正面催化劑,尤其是四大國有銀行,受益於進一步的營收改善;而股份制銀行則可能出現分化。整體而言,全國性銀行今年首季核心盈利增速預計將加快至3.5%(對比去年第四季為升2.2%),收入增速升3.8%(對比去年第四季為升2.4%),撥備前經營溢利(PPOP)上升4.8%(對比去年第四季為升2...
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《大行》瑞銀料內銀股首季業績可成正面催化劑 首選工行、建行、中行及信行H股
Recommend
27
Positive
42
Negative
21
 
 

瑞銀發表報告,內銀股於下周一(20日)開始公布今年首季業績,預期業績將成為正面催化劑,尤其是四大國有銀行,受益於進一步的營收改善;而股份制銀行則可能出現分化。整體而言,全國性銀行今年首季核心盈利增速預計將加快至3.5%(對比去年第四季為升2.2%),收入增速升3.8%(對比去年第四季為升2.4%),撥備前經營溢利(PPOP)上升4.8%(對比去年第四季為升2%);但純利增速相對溫和升1.2%(對比去年第四季為升2.4%),主要因撥備增加。

在收入驅動方面,該行預期內銀股淨息差按季保持穩定,儘管面臨房貸重定價壓力。新增貸款按年基本持平,意味著增速略放緩,但淨利息收入仍將保持正增長(+3.3%,對比去年第四季為升1%)。同時,手續費收入改善與成本控制將支持PPOP增速回升。相比之下,淨利增速可能落後於營收與PPOP,反映零售無抵押貸款與房地產風險仍高企,銀行需增加撥備以應對潛在資產質量壓力。此外,農行(01288.HK)  +0.050 (+0.840%)    Short selling $162.89M; Ratio 29.492%   與工行(01398.HK)  -0.040 (-0.569%)    Short selling $307.61M; Ratio 24.617%   的資本補充注入計劃細節尚待公布,每股作價與募資規模至關重要。

投資者焦點可能集中在以下幾方面:淨息差走勢,受益於存款成本下降及去年第四季的低基數,交通銀行(03328.HK)  -0.010 (-0.140%)    Short selling $66.20M; Ratio 64.036%   、建行(00939.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $462.99M; Ratio 25.163%   、平安銀行(000001.SZ)  +0.040 (+0.358%)   、民生銀行(01988.HK)  +0.030 (+0.826%)    Short selling $9.43M; Ratio 15.171%   淨息差有望錄得按季擴闊。手續費收入增速、債券交易收入強度及不良貸款新增情況。

瑞銀表示內銀基本面改善持續支撐,預期在4月下旬業績季,中行、交行、平安銀行、中信銀行(00998.HK)  +0.100 (+1.238%)    Short selling $20.00M; Ratio 12.129%   表現優於同業;興業銀行(601166.SH)  +0.130 (+0.700%)   、民生銀行則可能落後。年初至今,中國銀行股跑贏MSCI中國指數11%,尤其3月在地緣政治風險升溫下表現突出。去年業績顯示基本面改善,進一步支撐股價。展望未來,在地緣政治不確定性、房地產疲弱、人民幣升值及出口風險下,該行仍看好防禦型銀行。H股銀行股息率仍高於5%,基本面改善將持續支撐股價。12個月首選標的為中信銀行H股、中行H股、建行H股、工行H股。(wl/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-15 16:25.) (A Shares quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.)

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