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《大行》中金:OpenClaw驅動大模型實踐落地與行業商業模式重構
中金發表報告指,OpenClaw推動AI走向實用化落地,帶動算力需求增長,疊加行業全面漲價,雲計算板塊率先迎來業績與景氣度共振。中長期看,該行認為仍重點跟蹤企業端真實需求與留存轉化、雲廠商在產業鏈的核心卡位能力,以及利潤率與ROI能否持續改善,這才是決定行業長期價值的關鍵。報告指,去年第四季雲計算收入進一步加速,AI需求旺盛。互聯網雲,包括阿里雲、騰訊雲、百...
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《大行》中金:OpenClaw驅動大模型實踐落地與行業商業模式重構
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中金發表報告指,OpenClaw推動AI走向實用化落地,帶動算力需求增長,疊加行業全面漲價,雲計算板塊率先迎來業績與景氣度共振。中長期看,該行認為仍重點跟蹤企業端真實需求與留存轉化、雲廠商在產業鏈的核心卡位能力,以及利潤率與ROI能否持續改善,這才是決定行業長期價值的關鍵。

報告指,去年第四季雲計算收入進一步加速,AI需求旺盛。互聯網雲,包括阿里雲、騰訊雲、百度智能雲合計收入509億元,均為外部收入,進一步加速至按年增長26%。去年第四季阿里巴巴、騰訊、百度一般性業務合計資本開支506億元,按年下降29%。去年第四季AWS、微軟Azure、Google cloud、Oracle雲服務以及Coreweave合計實現收入876億美元,按年增速34%,合計資本開支1,419億美元,按年增速67%,維持高增長。

報告指,OpenClaw的出圈,標誌著大模型從通用對話逐步邁入可落地、能幹活的實用化階段,其可通過自然語言完成系統操作、自動化辦公與複雜任務執行,推動模型向生產力工具轉型。受此驅動,國內雲廠商的商業變現從傳統GPU租賃升級為MaaS模式。同時,AI智能體與推理需求旺盛,疊加GPU、算力基建與能耗成本高企,國內外雲廠商與模型廠商開啟全面漲價周期,該行認為行業轉向以性能與服務為核心的價值定價。

報告指,海外雲廠商在AI算力上持續高額投入,資本開支/經營現金流比例持續攀升,自由現金流承壓明顯,市場擔憂投入的回報周期長與資金安排。國內大廠2026年春節掀起AI紅包大戰,字節、阿里、騰訊、百度等重金投入AI應用拉新,短期推動用戶衝高,但活動結束後用戶留存與使用頻次普遍回落,其中字節豆包表現相對堅挺,用戶基數領跑。該行認為長效的商業模式與生態突破尚需要時間。
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