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《大行》野村上調中國CPI與PPI今年預測各至升0.6%與1%
野村發表報告表示,中國公布3月生產者物價指數(PPI)自2022年以來首次轉正;消費者物價指數(CPI)通脹則有所放緩。3月CPI按年上升1.0%,低於2月的1.3%,也略低於市場預期(市場共識與該行預測:1.1%)。PPI按年上升0.5%,高於2月的-0.9%,略高於預期(市場共識與該行:0.4%),自2022年9月以來首次正增長。該行指,CPI的回落主要...
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《大行》野村上調中國CPI與PPI今年預測各至升0.6%與1%
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野村發表報告表示,中國公布3月生產者物價指數(PPI)自2022年以來首次轉正;消費者物價指數(CPI)通脹則有所放緩。3月CPI按年上升1.0%,低於2月的1.3%,也略低於市場預期(市場共識與該行預測:1.1%)。PPI按年上升0.5%,高於2月的-0.9%,略高於預期(市場共識與該行:0.4%),自2022年9月以來首次正增長。

該行指,CPI的回落主要受春節後食品與核心價格走軟影響,抵消了能源價格上漲的壓力。PPI的回升則主要受去年低基數效應與全球能源價格飆升推動。由於全球油氣價格尚未完全傳導至整體通脹,預計PPI的改善趨勢在未來幾個月仍將持續。

野村表示,已將中國2026年CPI與PPI預測分別上調至0.6%與1.0%(此前為0.4%與-1.0%),反映了全球油氣價格上漲,以及有色金屬、記憶體晶片和「反內捲」政策所針對的原材料價格走高。這些再通脹力量或許是北京所樂見的,在經歷三年通縮壓力後終於出現轉機。然而,供給端驅動的再通脹也可能進一步壓縮企業利潤率,並抑制居民消費需求。

該行預計中國4月CPI按年將進一步回落至0.9%,主要受食品價格拖累,能源價格則提供一定支撐。該行預計中國4月PPI按年將進一步升至1.6%,受全球油價高企與去年低基數推動。據該行估算,油價若持續上漲10%,可使PPI通脹提高約1個百分點,且傳導往往存在滯後。因此,預計未來幾個月PPI仍將保持上行趨勢。(wl/u)

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