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《績後》一文綜合大行對中國平安(02318.HK)最新評級、目標價及觀點
中國平安(02318.HK)公布今年首季業績後,今早(29日)高開2%,初段升幅擴大,最高見63.75元一度彈高6.2%,現報62.9元,升4.7%,成交額21.98億元。里昂指中國平安今年首季營運利潤按年升7.6%及純利按年跌7.4%,均略好於市場一致預期,主要因資本市場波動對其影響較同業小,加上壽險合同服務邊際(CSM)保持韌性,新業務價值及利潤率表現符...
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《績後》一文綜合大行對中國平安(02318.HK)最新評級、目標價及觀點
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中國平安(02318.HK)  +3.550 (+5.912%)    Short selling $706.85M; Ratio 28.584%   公布今年首季業績後,今早(29日)高開2%,初段升幅擴大,最高見63.75元一度彈高6.2%,現報62.9元,升4.7%,成交額21.98億元。里昂指中國平安今年首季營運利潤按年升7.6%及純利按年跌7.4%,均略好於市場一致預期,主要因資本市場波動對其影響較同業小,加上壽險合同服務邊際(CSM)保持韌性,新業務價值及利潤率表現符合預期,資本壓力有所緩解。該行維持中國平安「跑贏大市」評級,並小幅上調目標價,由71元升至74元。高盛料中國平安股價可能會有正面反應,主要反映營運利潤增長的韌性、壽險新業務價值的強勁增長。

中國平安昨日(28日)收市後公布,首季收入合計2,384.77億元人民幣,按年跌7.1%。營運利潤407.8億人民幣按年增長7.6%。純利250.22億人民幣按年跌7.4%;每股基本盈利1.43元人民幣。

期內,平安產險實現原保險保費收入909.51億人民幣按年增長6.8%;保險服務收入843.34億人民幣,按年增長3.9%;整體綜合成本率為95.8%,按年優化0.8個百分點。壽險及健康險業務新業務價值(NBV)為155.74億人民幣,按年增長20.8%。截至今年3月31日,平安壽險核心償付能力充足率為131%,綜合償付能力充足率為183.3%;平安產險核心及綜合償付能力充足率分別為171.9%及217.9%,均滿足監管要求。

【季績優預期 股價有支持】

摩根士丹利表示,中國平安首季業績表現穩健,營運利潤按年增長7.6%至408億元,高於該行及市場預期約4%至5%。該行維持「增持」評級,目標價89港元,將中國平安列入首選股。中國平安管理層對2026財年新業務價值保持雙位數增長及CSM餘額正增長充滿信心,並預期資管板塊在2026年將實現扭虧為盈。

美銀證券發表研究報告指出,中國平安首季業績淨利潤按年下跌7%至250億元,略優於預期|淨利潤下降主要因投資收益減少,但相較同業更具韌性,因其在股權投資上較為保守。平安季內新業務價值按年增長21%,首年保費按年大增46%,但由於分紅型產品佔比上升,新業務價值利潤率由2025年一季度的28.3%降至23.5%。整體而言,壽險與銀行業務成為主要亮點,財險雖受投資拖累但成本率改善,平安展現出在弱市環境下的韌性,該行維持對中國平安「買入」評級,目標價為74元,相當於預測今年市賬率1.4倍。

摩根大通指,展望未來,若中國平安新業務價值的強勢能在接下來一至兩季持續,則新業務價值與CSM餘額預期有上調空間,尤其在產品利潤率保持穩定的假設下。該行不預期中國平安首季度業績會引發市場對盈利一致預期的重大調整。當前股價對應2026財年一致預期市盈率7倍及股息率6%。

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下表列出6間券商對中國平安(02318.HK)  +3.550 (+5.912%)    Short selling $706.85M; Ratio 28.584%   投資評級及目標價:

券商│評級│目標價(港元)
摩根大通│增持│90元
摩根士丹利│增持│89元
花旗│買入│82元
高盛│買入│75元
里昂│跑贏大市│71元->74元
美銀證券│買入│74元

券商│觀點
摩根大通│高品質的成長和穩健的核心獲利能力 緩解市場主要擔憂
摩根士丹利│首季業績鞏固
花旗│管理層料今年新業務價值錄雙位數字增長
高盛│首季盈利勝預期,營運利潤增長穩健,壽險新業務價值強勁增長
里昂│首季純利降幅小於行業平均水平
美銀證券│首季盈利表現略勝預期
(ta/w)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-04-29 12:25.)

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