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摩根資產管理料油價第三至第四季大致回歸正常 全球經濟增長將保持韌性
摩根資產管理首席投資組合經理盛楠表示,該行基本情境預測油價將在第三季至第四季大致回歸正常。在此基本情境下,認為全球經濟增長將保持韌性。該行維持適度偏好風險的立場,包括增持股票,並重申對科技與通訊服務產業的偏好。在固定收益方面,隨著孳息率曲線趨陡,傾向於縮短存續期。該行的信用配置為中立,反映了當前報酬率不對稱的分布。盛楠表示全球各經濟體對能源價格上漲的脆弱程度...
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摩根資產管理料油價第三至第四季大致回歸正常 全球經濟增長將保持韌性
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摩根資產管理首席投資組合經理盛楠表示,該行基本情境預測油價將在第三季至第四季大致回歸正常。在此基本情境下,認為全球經濟增長將保持韌性。該行維持適度偏好風險的立場,包括增持股票,並重申對科技與通訊服務產業的偏好。在固定收益方面,隨著孳息率曲線趨陡,傾向於縮短存續期。該行的信用配置為中立,反映了當前報酬率不對稱的分布。

盛楠表示全球各經濟體對能源價格上漲的脆弱程度不一。在該行的基本情境下,預期美國經濟將從高於趨勢的增長率,轉變為接近(或略高於)趨勢的增長率,且油價上漲對核心通脹的傳導效應有限。消費者與企業都將此波能源價格飆升視為暫時性現象,這應有助於避免更廣泛的經濟放緩。

與其他主要經濟體相比,中國看來是最不受能源衝擊影響的國家之一。該行預期其今年GDP增長率僅會從5%略微下降至4.8%。歐洲則是另一個故事,其對能源進口的高度依賴,使其同時面臨增長疲軟與通膨升溫的風險。

AI近期的發展包括更多能從端到端執行工作流程的代理型模型。該行也觀察到推論經濟學(本質上是在生產環境中運行AI模型的成本與權衡)的快速進步。這些進展整體上正促使企業加速採用AI,同時也將優勢集中到那些掌握發行渠道、數據與開發者生態系統的平台身上。

與此同時,擴展AI系統需要大幅提升運算能力、網路、記憶體與電力。這為那些打造AI硬體與基礎設施的公司,以及能夠從更高的用戶活動與AI賦能產品中獲利的大型網路,創造了持久的需求。

另一方面,某些軟體公司在新的AI生態系統中似乎處於較不利的位置。大型語言模型的改進,已促使投資者對某些軟體公司的生存風險進行定價,儘管該行認為上季的軟體股拋售有些過頭了。

總體而言,該行希望在限制下行風險的同時,維持對具韌性增長機會的曝險。該行的股票展望仍為適度偏好風險,反映了對穩健經濟增長的基本情境預測,以及來自全球財政刺激與AI採用的結構性順風。在固定收益方面,隨著孳息率曲線趨陡,該行傾向於縮短存續期。信用配置為中立,反映了當前環境下報酬率不對稱的分布。

考慮到該行自上而下與自下而上的公司分析師所給出的仍然正面的基本面展望、估值要求較低以及持倉較輕,該行持續認為在12至18個月的投資期內,股票市場存在機會。AI仍然是市場的結構性正向驅動力,但短期的發展路徑可能不平順。

從科技採用過渡到廣泛科技部署的過程將會充滿波折。該行仍專注於與企業利潤率、獲利能力、槓桿狀況以及在手訂單轉換(將承諾轉化為營收)相關的發展。

同時,該行透過青睞那些具有韌性基本面與結構性增長驅動力的國家與地區,來強調多元化配置。日本仍然是突出且具吸引力的多元化股票配置標的。在經濟再通脹、持續進行的公司治理改革以及資本紀律改善所支撐的盈餘實現週期下,日本股票獲得支撐。此外,鑑於日本對能源衝擊的曝險程度,若全球不確定性消退,日本還提供了突出機會。

儘管信貸市場繼續提供具吸引力的總收益率,但總體宏觀風險正在上升。雖然整體基本面依然穩健,但某些產業已開始出現一些脆弱性,凸顯了主動管理的重要性。在信用利差回吐了3月份的漲幅後,未來的報酬預計將由收益滾存(carry)而非資本增值所驅動。鑑於下行風險的報酬不對稱,該行對高收益債與新興市場債券維持中性立場。

在利率與外匯方面,該行已轉為做空美國10年期公債存續期,這反映了該行對經濟增長好轉與孳息率上升的基本面預期。但考量到中東衝突持續,該行對此觀點僅有中等的信心度。歐洲經濟面臨能源進口依賴帶來的逆風,且歐洲央行看來可能在今年加息。在外匯方面,若投資人認為美國經濟例外論再現,美元可能在短期內短暫走強。儘管如此,該行仍維持中期看空美元的觀點。(ad/u)

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