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《大行》摩通升MSCI香港指數基本目標至16,500 首選港交所(00388.HK)友邦(01299.HK)創科(00669.HK)新地(00016.HK)領展(00823.HK)
摩根大通發表報告指,受惠於週期性復甦的同步推進以及有利的流動性環境,MSCI香港指數年初至今已上升13%,表現優於主要離岸中國股市基準(MSCI中國指數下跌5%,恒生指數上升1%)。香港的復甦基礎廣泛,始於較低的基數,涵蓋房地產(二手價格從低谷反彈15%)、金融(強勁的融資與交易活動)以及消費(2026年第一季零售額按年增長12%),帶動自2025年以來遠期...
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《大行》摩通升MSCI香港指數基本目標至16,500 首選港交所(00388.HK)友邦(01299.HK)創科(00669.HK)新地(00016.HK)領展(00823.HK)
Recommend
12
Positive
11
Negative
9
 
 

摩根大通發表報告指,受惠於週期性復甦的同步推進以及有利的流動性環境,MSCI香港指數年初至今已上升13%,表現優於主要離岸中國股市基準(MSCI中國指數下跌5%,恒生指數上升1%)。香港的復甦基礎廣泛,始於較低的基數,涵蓋房地產(二手價格從低谷反彈15%)、金融(強勁的融資與交易活動)以及消費(2026年第一季零售額按年增長12%),帶動自2025年以來遠期每股盈利預測上調11%。

展望未來,該行的週期分析顯示,香港正從週期早期轉向中期,這應會減緩上行步伐,但支持更可持續的增長路徑。傳統週期性板塊之外,香港的離岸融資角色正日益受惠於中國的科技升級與海外擴張計劃——自2025年以來,先進產業佔香港IPO集資額約72%,重塑了上市結構與投資者基礎,同時強化了財富效應與增長導向的資金流入。面對地緣政治不確定性加劇,行政長官李家超亦強調香港具備吸納由分散風險及安全驅動的資金流入的潛力。

基於基本面前景與流動性狀況良好,該行將MSCI香港指數的基本/牛市/熊市目標分別上調至16,500 / 17,300 / 14,500,意味著較目前水平分別有7% / 12% / -6%的潛在變動空間。該行將房地產板塊上調至「增持」,將公用事業調整為「中性」,資金來源為將非必需消費品下調至「減持」。該行的首選股包括港交所(00388.HK)  -0.400 (-0.098%)    Short selling $70.26M; Ratio 10.146%   及友邦保險(01299.HK)  -0.600 (-0.692%)    Short selling $258.42M; Ratio 22.202%   (受惠於資本市場槓桿及財富效應改善)、創科實業(00669.HK)  -0.900 (-0.761%)    Short selling $102.50M; Ratio 28.791%   (具備人工智能相關上升潛力及強韌的美國需求),以及新鴻基地產(00016.HK)  -0.900 (-0.658%)    Short selling $83.27M; Ratio 34.190%   /領展房產基金(00823.HK)  +0.380 (+0.927%)    Short selling $40.85M; Ratio 24.978%   (物業週期預期改善)。MSCI香港指數目前相當於遠期市盈率為15.3倍,僅較十年平均值高出0.3個標準差,而2026/27年市場預測每股盈利增長分別為16%及5.4%。(ad/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-19 12:25.)

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