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《大行》里昂:中石化(00386.HK)伊戰以來股價跑輸同業反映基本面分野 行業首選中石油(00857.HK)
里昂發表報告指出,自3月美以伊戰事爆發以來,中石化(00386.HK)表現較中石油(00857.HK)及中海油(00883.HK)分別落後29%及18%,這反映了在油價上漲環境下,「三桶油」之間基本盈利的分歧。該行預計隨著8月公佈2026年第二季業績臨近,這種分歧趨勢將持續。該行對中國石油巨頭的偏好次序,維持為中石油>中海油>中石化。由於2026...
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《大行》里昂:中石化(00386.HK)伊戰以來股價跑輸同業反映基本面分野 行業首選中石油(00857.HK)
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里昂發表報告指出,自3月美以伊戰事爆發以來,中石化(00386.HK)  +0.010 (+0.223%)    Short selling $47.69M; Ratio 41.421%   表現較中石油(00857.HK)  +0.120 (+1.092%)    Short selling $112.86M; Ratio 31.247%   及中海油(00883.HK)  +0.780 (+2.915%)    Short selling $281.73M; Ratio 17.013%   分別落後29%及18%,這反映了在油價上漲環境下,「三桶油」之間基本盈利的分歧。該行預計隨著8月公佈2026年第二季業績臨近,這種分歧趨勢將持續。該行對中國石油巨頭的偏好次序,維持為中石油>中海油>中石化。

由於2026年第二季至今平均油價為每桶117美元(按季增44%),對中石化下游業務的影響或較嚴重。其第二季煉油盈利將受到國家發改委減緩國內汽油及柴油零售價格調整的影響,這將導致煉油利潤率因油價上漲而受壓。此外,由於霍爾木茲海峽關閉導致超大型油輪運費大幅上漲(自3月以來平均每桶油當量7.2美元,較2025年平均每桶油當量1.4美元高出5.2倍),在油價上漲的同時也為其原油進口帶來額外成本負擔。在此背景下,該行認為中石化2026年第二季的整體可能由盈轉虧(不含庫存收益)。

里昂稱,這反過來將影響各公司2026年的股息派發。得益於強勁的勘探與生產盈利,中石油及中海油的經營現金流應會更強勁,為提高股息派發提供更大空間。另一方面,由於下游業務面臨挑戰,中石化可能面臨經營現金流受壓,這可能影響其在2026年維持股息派發的能力。該行指出,中石化在2023至2026年的四年間已削減資本開支30%,但考慮到目前的下游經營環境,這可能仍不足夠。

總體而言,該行認為市場對中石油及中海油的全年盈利預測存在上行風險,尤其是中石油,其2026年第一季盈利因勘探與生產實現價格有一個月的滯後,尚未反映油價上漲的正面影響。該行預期即將公佈的2026年第二季盈利(將於8月公佈)將錄得強勁的按季增長,將證明其在2026年的強勁盈利軌跡。相反,該行預期中石化的全年盈利存在下行風險,因其2026年第二季將面臨挑戰,可能影響市場對其2026年盈利及股息派發預期。

該行予「三桶油」H股評級均為「跑贏大市」,中石油目標價12港元,中海油目標價32港元,中石化目標價4.9港元。(da/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-19 12:25.)

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